Ha oli e tala e koaloa ka hodimo bosiu, ditheko tsa peterole le disele tsa lehae di ile tsa boela tsa bula potoloho e ntjha ya keketseho, thapama dibakeng tse ding, yuniti e kgolo ya peterole le disele e na le diphetoho tse pedi kapa tse tharo tse lokelang ho nyoloha, mme disele e ile ya qala ho ba le leano le fokolang la thekiso. Haufinyane tjena, tlhoko ya peterole e tsheheditswe ke keketseho ya palo ya maeto a lehlabula le oli e phodisang moya, empa disele e tswetse pele ho putlama ha pula Leboya le Borwa, mme tlhoko ha e a ntlafala haholo.

Ho ya ka tlhokomelo ya data ya Longzhong, ho tloha ditafoleng tse pedi tse ka hodimo, qalong ya Phato selemong sena, ditheko tsa peterole le disele tsa lapeng di nyolohile ho tloha qalong ya Phupu, peterole e nyolohile pakeng tsa 45-367 yuan/ton, Shandong e na le keketseho e nyane ka ho fetisisa; Keketseho ya disele dibakeng tse fapaneng ke 713-946 yuan/ton, mme keketseho e kgolo dibakeng tsohle, mme keketseho ya disele e kgolo ho feta ya peterole.

Kamora ho sutumelletsa holimo ka makhetlo a 'maloa, mabaka a tobileng ke a latelang:

1. Ho nyoloha ha litheko tsa oli e tala tsa machabeng

Ho tloha qalong ea Phupu ho isa qalong ea Phato, Saudi Arabia le Russia li lokollotse litheolelo tse ling tsa tlhahiso, 'me sehlohlolo sa tšebeliso ea mafura United States le menyetla ea moruo oa Asia se lebelletsoe ho ba betere,' me ho theoha ha li-inventory tsa oli e tala tsa khoebo United States ho tšehetsoa ke litaba tse monate, 'me litheko tsa oli e tala tsa machabeng li fetohile ho ea holimo. Ho tloha ka la 3 Phato, Brent e koetse ho $85.14 / BBL, e nyolohile ka $10.49 / BBL kapa 14.05% ho tloha qalong ea Phupu.

2. phaello ea kantle ho naha ea peterole le diesel e phahame

Ho ya ka Longzhong data monitoring, ha re nka mohlala wa kou ya South China, ho tloha bohareng ho isa mafelong a Phuptjane selemong sena, fensetere ya arbitrage ya peterole le diesel ya lehae e butswe ka ho latellana. Ho tloha ka la 3 Phato, phaello ya thepa e romellwang kantle ho naha ya peterole ya China ho ya Singapore e ne e le 183 yuan/tonne, e leng keketseho ya 322.48% ho tloha bohareng ba Phuptjane; phaello ya thepa e romellwang kantle ho naha ya disele e ne e le 708 yuan/tonne, keketseho ya 319.08% ho tloha bohareng ba Phuptjane.

Ka keketseho ea phaello ea kantle ho naha ea peterole le diesel, 'maraka o lebelletsoe ho romela kantle ho naha thepa e eketsehileng e romelloang kantle ho naha, 'me tse ling tsa li-unit tse kholo ka Phupu li tla buloa, mathoasong a Phupu, tse ling tsa li-unit tse kholo Chaena Bochabela li 92# litheko tsa peterole li 8380 yuan/ton, ho fihlela ka la 3 Phato, theko e nyolohetse ho 8700 yuan/ton, keketseho ea 320 yuan/ton kapa 3.82%; Theko ea diesel e tsoang kantle ho naha e nyolohile ho tloha ho 6,860 yuan/ton ho ea ho 7,750 yuan/ton, keketseho ea 890 yuan/ton kapa 12.97%. Ha li-unit tse kholo li qala ho bokella mouoane le diesel, ba bang ba mahareng ba ile ba latela, theko ea likepe tsa peterole le diesel e ile ea nyoloha, 'me esita le theko ea oli e tala e ile ea theoha ka linako tse ling, empa theko ea peterole le diesel e ile ea nyoloha ho e-na le ho theoha.

3, basebetsi ba 'maraka ba ela hloko likarolo tsa kantle ho naha

Ho fihlela joale, Lefapha la Khoebo la Chaena le ntšitse lihlopha tse peli tsa litefiso tsa kantle ho naha tsa oli e hloekisitsoeng selemong sena, tse akaretsang lithane tse limilione tse 27.99. Ho tloha ka Pherekhong ho isa Phuptjane, palo e akaretsang ea lihlahisoa tsa oli e hloekisitsoeng Chaena e ne e le lithane tse limilione tse 20.3883. Haeba lihlahisoa tsa oli e hloekisitsoeng tse tsoang kantle ho naha tse tlas'a tlhokomelo ea matsete a kantle ho naha li ne li ka tlosoa, palo ea 'nete ea thepa e romelloang kantle ho naha e ne e le lithane tse limilione tse 20.2729, sekhahla sa ho phethela ha palo ea thepa e romelloang kantle ho naha e ne e le 72.43%, 'me ho ne ho e-na le lithane tse 7.717,100 tsa litefiso tsa kantle ho naha tse lokelang ho phethoa. Ho ea ka tlhahisoleseling ea Longzhong e fumanoeng 'marakeng, palo e reriloeng ea thepa e romelloang kantle ho naha ea lihlahisoa tsa oli e hloekisitsoeng tsa Chaena ka Phupu le Phato ke lithane tse limilione tse 7.02, haeba bongata bona bo ka romelloa kantle ho naha, palo ea thepa e romelloang kantle ho naha ea lihlahisoa tsa oli e hloekisitsoeng tsa Chaena ka Pherekhong le Phato ke 97.88%, 'me palo ea lihlopha tse peli e se e sebelisitsoe. Hona jwale, peterole le disele tse romelwang kantle ho naha di na le phaello, sehlopha sa boraro sa ditekanyetso tsa kantle ho naha se lebelletswe ho ntshuwa bohareng ba kgwedi ena, ha se qhelele ka thoko monyetla wa hore mekgatlo e meng e romellweng kantle ho naha e kenye peterole le disele tse romelwang kantle ho naha.

4, bokgoni ba tlhokomelo ya lehae bo fokotsehile, mme phepelo e boetse e eketsehile, empa tshusumetso ya phepelo le tlhokeho mmarakeng e fokotsehile.

Ka Phato, sekala sa tlhokomelo ya fektheri ya mantlha ya China se ile sa tswela pele ho fokotseha, ho ya ka dipalopalo tsa tlhahisoleseding tsa Longzhong, ka Phato feela tlhokomelo ya Daqing le dikhemikhale le Lanzhou Petrochemical tse pedi tse kgolo tsa ho hlwekisa, tse kenyeletsang bokgoni ba tlhokomelo kapa ditone tse 700,000, tse ka tlase ho Phupu ditone tse dimilione tse 1.4, e leng ho theoha ha 66%. Ho ya ka dikhakanyo tsa data, tlhahiso yohle ya oli ya difeme tse kgolo tsa ho hlwekisa ka Phato e lebelletswe ho nyolohela ho 61.3%, ho nyoloha ka 0.75% ho tloha kgweding e fetileng. Karolelano e tswetse pele ho theoha ho 1.02. Tlhahiso ya peterole le mafura a jete e eketsehile ka dikgwedi tse hlano tse latellanang, mme tlhahiso ya oli ya disele e theohile ka dikgwedi tse tharo tse latellanang. Ka hona, ho lebelletswe hore tlhahiso e rerilweng ya mouoane, disele le mashala femeng e kgolo ya ho hlwekisa ka Phato ke ditone tse dimilione tse 11.02, ditone tse dimilione tse 11.27 le ditone tse dimilione tse 5.01, ka ho latellana, e leng +4.39%, -0.68% le +7.92%.

Ka Phato, bokgoni ba tlhokomelo ya difeme tse ikemetseng tsa ho hlwekisa ha bo a ka ba fetoha haholo, mme ho lebelletswe hore bo tla kenyeletsa ditone tse dimilione tse 2.27 tsa bokgoni ba tlhokomelo, keketseho ya ditone tse 50,000 ho tloha ka Phupu, keketseho ya 2.25%. Haholo-holo hobane difeme tse hlwekisitsweng ka Phupu, tse kang Xintai Petrochemical, Yatong Petrochemical, Panjin Haoye le difeme tse ding tsa ho hlwekisa, le Lanqiao Petrochemical, Wudi Xinyue, Dalian Jinyuan, Xinhai Shihua, jj. di tla bulwa ka ho latellana mathoasong a Phato, e leng se tla fokotsa bokgoni ba ntlafatso ya fektheri ya Baolai Petrochemical ka Phato. Ka kakaretso, tlhahiso ya oli e hlwekisitsweng malapeng e lebelletswe ho eketseha ka Phato, eo hara yona, tlhahiso ya peterole e eketsehileng kgwedi le kgwedi, mme tlhahiso ya diesel ha e lebellwe hore e tla fetoha haholo.

Ka kakaretso, litheko tsa peterole le disele tsa lehae li ntse li tsoela pele ho nyoloha, haholo-holo ka lebaka la ho phahama ha litheko tsa oli e tala, phaello e phahameng ea kantle ho naha, 'maraka o lebelletsoe ho eketsa bongata ba thepa e romeloang kantle ho naha,' me "gold nine silver ten" ea tla, 'maraka o tlameha ho etsa mesebetsi ea polokelo esale pele, 'me litheko tsa pele tsa disele li tlase haholo,' me cheseho ea ts'ebetso ea 'maraka e phahame haholo ha e bapisoa le peterole. Litheko tsa mabenkele li lebelletsoe ho nyoloha bekeng e tlang, 'me litaba tsa oli e tala li ntse li tšehetsoa haholo, ho lebelletsoe hore ka karolelano ea thepa e romeloang kantle ho naha e fanoeng, 'maraka oa peterole le disele o ka tsoela pele ho phahama.